- Rising unemployment (slowing, yes, but still)
- Households continue to deleverage /rebuild their balance sheet and savings
- Whilst conditions in the interbank market is back to normal according to OIS and TED spreads, banks' lending to consumers and companies is muted
- Governments are going to compete with the private sector to finance their needs
- Excess liquidity is finding again it way into financial assets, commodities in particular that are well above what the medium term economy warrants
- Taxes are on the rise in some countries to finance the fiscal gap: US and UK in particular. At a time of high unemployment and low wage growth, there is a risk of withdrawing additional money from households potential spending
16 September 2009
W shape recovery?
Economic numbers have been rosier for a couple of months. Underneath, some fundamentals problems have yet to be solved: