16 September 2009

W shape recovery?

Economic numbers have been rosier for a couple of months. Underneath, some fundamentals problems have yet to be solved:
  • Rising unemployment (slowing, yes, but still)
  • Households continue to deleverage /rebuild their balance sheet and savings
  • Whilst conditions in the interbank market is back to normal according to OIS and TED spreads, banks' lending to consumers and companies is muted
  • Governments are going to compete with the private sector to finance their needs
  • Excess liquidity is finding again it way into financial assets, commodities in particular that are well above what the medium term economy warrants
  • Taxes are on the rise in some countries to finance the fiscal gap: US and UK in particular. At a time of high unemployment and low wage growth, there is a risk of withdrawing additional money from households potential spending
I do not believe (as yet) that we will witnessed a double dip recession. However all the noise made by the media and politicians about a better economic outlook, makes me nervous, and the risk of policy mistake is on the rise, fear having disappeared.